Sara Duterte rules out resignation as polls show resilient support during impeachment

Defense begins presenting its case

Duterte's spokesman, Paolo Panelo, said she "will not resign," The Philippine Star reported. Senator Risa Hontiveros described reports that senator-judges had already secured the votes for a conviction as "premature".

The defense began presenting evidence on November 9, 2026. Its first witness, Davao City assessor Jaime Adalin, testified that the property identified by TCT No. 146-2024010775 appeared in Duterte's Statement of Assets, Liabilities and Net Worth. He also said Barangay Matina Crossing and Barangay 74-A refer to the same place, according to The Philippine Star.

Prosecutors have cited forensic financial analyst Alexander Cabrera's estimate that Duterte and her husband, Mans Carpio, may hold at least ₱817.87 million in unexplained assets, with broader projections exceeding ₱1.5 billion. The House prosecution panel has also asserted that her lawyers did not contest the authenticity of key financial records.

Strong support, but different presidential polling results

Mindanao is the center of Duterte's support. Pulse Asia measured her trust rating there at 94% in September 2026, compared with 57% in the Visayas, 43% in Metro Manila and 37% in the rest of Luzon. Her nationwide rating was 55%.

Two more recent surveys placed her first in a hypothetical 2028 presidential contest, but reported substantially different margins. OCTA Research put Duterte at 40% and former Vice President and current Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo at 33%. The survey ran from September 28 through October 4, 2026, and its results were published November 4–9.

That seven-percentage-point lead was the smallest OCTA had recorded between the two. It reflected a six-point decline for Duterte, not a gain for Robredo, whose support remained in the 33%–35% range. The share of undecided voters increased.

WR Numero, by contrast, recorded 42% for Duterte and 16% for Robredo in its October 7–13 survey, published November 4. Duterte's share was up from 33% in March. The pollster reported no significant erosion in voter preference linked to the impeachment trial and found that most respondents followed the hearings only intermittently.

Regional grievances and the stalled railway

A Gulf News opinion piece links Duterte's political resilience partly to resentment of Manila's concentration of power and resources. It argues that many Mindanao residents see the impeachment less as an accountability proceeding than as an attack by the capital's political establishment on a region that has long felt neglected.

The commentary points to the Mindanao Railway Project as a concrete source of that frustration. Work halted in 2023 after the Philippine government withdrew its request for Chinese Official Development Assistance loans, citing a lack of progress from Beijing. The first phase was valued at ₱83 billion ($667.5 million).

The railway remains without funding in the proposed 2027 national budget. SunStar reported that the Department of Transportation sought ₱624.48 billion for 179 projects, but only 30 projects entered the 2027 National Expenditure Program. A proposed ₱8.53 billion for the railway's early works was excluded.

At least 159 families have already been relocated for right-of-way acquisition. The roughly 100-kilometer first phase would connect Tagum, Davao City and Digos, with the journey expected to take about one hour.

Gulf News contrasts the railway's position with continued state budget support for the North South Commuter Rail and the $14 billion Manila Subway. It also cites infrastructure additions for districts represented by Marcos supporters, including ₱4.74 billion for Sandro Marcos's Ilocos Norte 1st District.

Financing discussions have nevertheless continued. As of September 2026, the government was considering foreign funding, including India as a possible partner, while the Asian Development Bank was assisting with an updated feasibility study, according to Edge Davao. On September 18, Senator Christopher "Bong" Go pressed transportation officials for a firm schedule and funding plan.

The gap between local autonomy and regional development

The Gulf News analysis distinguishes the concentration of resources from the Constitution's formal provisions. The 1987 charter guarantees local autonomy, grants local revenue powers and recognizes autonomous regions, including the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao. It does not require all consequential decisions to come from Manila.

Yet the commentary argues that the distribution of economic infrastructure helps explain why centralization remains a potent grievance. Six legislated freeport zones are in Luzon. The only one outside Luzon, in Zamboanga City, still lacks a stand-alone port despite having been established in 1995. Luzon also contains most Philippine Economic Zone Authority sites.

Bicol, with more than 6 million residents, has no freeport zone. Its ₱4.8 billion Bicol International Airport has no international flights. The commentary presents these examples as signs that decentralization has delivered too little or has been poorly implemented, while rejecting the notion that Manila alone bears responsibility.

What popularity can and cannot establish

Analyst Richard Javad Foronda Heydarian offers several possible explanations for Duterte's support: regional identity, resentment toward Manila, views of her performance, family loyalty, local political networks and resistance to perceived persecution by elites. These are political interpretations, not causes established by the surveys.

Geographic polling alone cannot demonstrate that hostility toward Manila drives support for the Dutertes, or that federalism would ease those tensions. The Gulf News commentary also warns against treating Duterte's supporters as uniformly uninformed or unconcerned about corruption.

Its central distinction is between political loyalty and legal accountability: a favorable trust rating does not answer questions about financial evidence. Respect for Mindanao need not mean accepting unexplained wealth, just as scrutiny of wealthy political families—including the Dutertes, Marcoses, Aquinos and Villars—need not mean abandoning due process.

For the trial, the commentary calls for the defense to address disputed financial entries with records and qualified testimony. Regional grievances, it argues, deserve attention without displacing either a fair hearing or examination of officials' finances.