China's Old-Age Dependency Ratio Exceeds Child Ratio for First Time

The demographic crossover

The yearbook, published by the National Bureau of Statistics, recorded 223.65 million people age 65 and older, representing 15.9% of China's population. Children age 14 and younger accounted for 212.76 million people, or 15.1%.

The dependency ratios had been converging for years. Yearbook data reported by Yicai show that the old-age ratio increased from 15% in 2016 to 20.8% in 2021, its first reading above 20%. By 2024, it stood at 22.8%, just below the child dependency ratio of 23%, before moving ahead in 2025.

Behind the shift are longer life expectancy, decades of falling birth rates and the lasting effects of China's former one-child policy. In 2025, the total population declined for the fourth year in a row, falling by about 3.39 million to 1.405 billion. Births dropped to 7.92 million, while the birth rate reached 5.63 per 1,000 people, the lowest since the People's Republic of China was founded in 1949.

China has announced an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan, about $540, for each child under age three to encourage childbearing.

Pension pressures and later retirement

As growth in the working-age population slows, spending associated with aging is adding to the strain on government budgets and changing the labor market. Official figures cited by BBC News show that more than 53 million older people received senior citizen allowances and subsidies by the end of 2025.

The pension system also faces a longer-term funding risk. In 2019, the state-run Chinese Academy of Social Sciences warned that China's state pension fund could run out of money by 2035.

To ease the financial burden of an aging population, China began phasing in a higher statutory retirement age in January 2025. Over 15 years, the retirement age for men will move from 60 to 63. For women, it will rise from 55 to 58 for white-collar workers and from 50 to 55 for blue-collar workers.

A separate change begins in 2030: the minimum contribution period needed to qualify for monthly pension benefits will gradually lengthen from 15 years to 20.

Changing needs for care

The changing age profile is already altering how some buildings are used. Yicai reported that kindergartens with enrollment difficulties are being converted into elderly care facilities in the eastern Chinese cities of Changzhou, Jinan and Jinhua. Many unused rural primary schools have become nursing homes and canteens serving seniors.

Damien Ng, an analyst at Next Generation Research, described longer lives as both an achievement and a source of pressure on public services.

"From a demographic perspective, this development represents both a challenge and a success story. Longer lives are becoming the norm, reflecting substantial advances in healthcare alongside improvements in nutrition and living standards. At the same time, the growing number of retirees is placing greater pressure on healthcare systems and pension schemes."

The market for longer, healthier lives

Ng said attention is shifting from lifespan alone to healthspan: the years people spend in good health. He expects rising life expectancy to increase demand for healthcare, preventive medicine, health management, assistive technologies and services that support independence in later life.

The potential market extends across goods and services for older consumers, often called the "silver economy." According to Fortune, Beijing expects it to reach 30 trillion yuan, about $4.5 trillion, by 2035.

As businesses adapt to older consumers' healthcare needs and spending patterns, Ng sees potential investment opportunities. "For investors and policymakers alike, the message is clear: longevity has evolved beyond a healthcare issue. It is becoming a consequential economic and social force that will shape fiscal sustainability and consumption patterns for decades to come," he said.

Ng retained a Constructive outlook on the Extended Longevity investment theme, saying opportunities tied to longer, healthier lives could gain importance as populations age around the world.