Dubai retains lead in $10 million-plus home sales as market slows
Dubai recorded more $10 million-plus home sales than any other market in the third quarter of 2026, despite a sharp drop in activity. Knight Frank counted 86 transactions worth $1.57 billion in the emirate, while Hong Kong moved narrowly ahead in total sales value.
Mariam Al Mansoori
Dubai leads in deals, Hong Kong in value
Hong Kong's 78 sales generated $1.58 billion in Q3, putting it above Dubai by value for the first time since Q2 2022. New York ranked third by transaction count, with 62 sales, according to Knight Frank's Global Super-Prime Intelligence report.
Dubai's lead was wider over the year through September: its 525 transactions totaled $9.25 billion, the highest figures among the markets tracked. Hong Kong followed with 346 deals worth $6.65 billion.
The quarterly figures nevertheless showed a marked slowdown in Dubai. Transaction numbers dropped 34% from Q2 and sales value fell 28%, leaving the deal count at its lowest since Q3 2024. Compared with Q3 2025, when 103 homes sold, transactions declined 16% and value fell 21%. Knight Frank said the second straight quarterly decline showed that the unusually rapid pace of early 2026 had eased.
Despite the weaker quarter, Dubai's first-nine-month total remained above the previous year's level. Knight Frank recorded 412 sales worth about $6.67 billion from January through September 2026, compared with 357 transactions in the same period of 2025.
Hong Kong also recorded fewer deals than in Q2, with its count down 16%. Its year-over-year figures were stronger, however: sales numbers rose 39% and value increased 52%.
"Super-prime activity slowed in the third quarter, but the more significant story is a shift in leadership. Hong Kong edged past Dubai on value for the first time in four years, and Sydney posted a record quarter," said Liam Bailey, global head of research at Knight Frank.
Palm Jumeirah and villas lead Dubai's sales
Within Dubai, Palm Jumeirah had the most active $10 million-plus market. Its 27 transactions brought in AED 2.01 billion ($546.7 million), representing about 31% of the quarter's super-prime sales and 35% of their value, Knight Frank reported.
The most expensive properties accounted for a disproportionate share of spending. Across Dubai, 13 homes sold for more than $25 million, totaling AED 1.84 billion ($499.7 million). Those transactions made up about 15% of the $10 million-plus deal count but nearly 32% of its value. Five of the 13 were on Palm Jumeirah.
Villas accounted for 55 of Dubai's 86 super-prime transactions, or roughly 64%.
Prices decline across prime neighborhoods
The slowdown extended beyond the $10 million-plus segment. Across Dubai's 10 prime neighborhoods, Knight Frank reported a 5% price decline between Q2 and Q3 2026, the first fall since 2020. Total prime transaction volumes were 29.4% below their year-earlier level.
Faisal Durrani, Knight Frank's head of research for MENA, attributed the slowdown to the ongoing regional conflict. He said its stop-start nature was weighing on confidence.
On Palm Jumeirah, prices fell 9.1% over the 12 months through Q3 to AED 4,083 per square foot, according to Knight Frank's Louis Harding. He said overall sales volumes on the island were down 37% from the previous summer, with buyer interest coming largely from people seeking permanent residences or vacation homes rather than investors looking to buy and flip.
Sydney sets a record as global activity eases
Knight Frank counted 470 super-prime sales across its 12 tracked markets in Q3. That was 19% below the revised Q2 figure and 2% below the year-earlier total. The transactions were worth $8.7 billion, an 18% quarterly decline but a 1% increase from a year earlier.
Sydney bucked the broader slowdown. Its transaction count more than doubled from Q2 to a record 57, while sales value climbed 77% to $724 million. New York also improved, recording 62 deals worth $1.08 billion, increases of 9% and 11%, respectively. Los Angeles, by contrast, registered only 18 sales, the lowest count in the series.
London recorded 42 transactions, with total value falling by half to $722 million because the exceptionally large deals of Q2 were not repeated. Realtopedia, citing Knight Frank's data, reported that the average sale fell from about $31.7 million to $17.2 million. That change describes the mix of properties sold, not gains or losses for individual owners. Miami recorded 30 sales totaling $762 million, with value down just 6% from Q2.
Asia-Pacific's share of transactions rose to 38% from 29% in Q2, while US transaction volumes declined 30%. Across all 12 markets, the year through September produced 2,240 sales worth $41 billion, broadly matching the totals for the year through June. Knight Frank identified the depth of Hong Kong's recovery as a key issue to watch in 2027.
How the figures are compiled
The report is a brokerage tally rather than an official statistical series. According to Realtopedia, Knight Frank compiles publicly recorded sales and converts them into US dollars using the exchange rate on each transaction date. Appraisal firm Miller Samuel supplies the US figures.
Earlier quarters are subject to revision. The global Q1 2026 count, initially reported as 636 sales, now stands at 622; Dubai's count for that quarter has been revised from 193 to 165.
