UAE weather: Rain chances, 90% humidity and 45km/h winds forecast this week
Temperatures will reach 43°C on Saturday before rain chances begin Monday. Convective clouds expected over eastern areas with fog possible in coastal regions through the week.
Omar Al Nuaimi
Saturday's conditions
The UAE is set for a week of varied weather conditions, with temperatures reaching 43°C on Saturday, October 10, followed by rain chances, high humidity and strengthening winds from Monday onwards, according to the National Centre of Meteorology.
The federal meteorological agency, which operates under the Ministry of Climate Change and Environment, has forecast convective cloud development over eastern areas from Monday to Wednesday, bringing the possibility of rainfall to parts of the country.
Weather on Saturday will be fair to partly cloudy, with clouds developing over eastern and southern regions by afternoon. Humidity levels are expected to increase overnight and into Sunday morning, bringing a chance of fog or mist in some coastal and inland areas.
Temperatures will range from 39°C to 43°C in inland areas, 34°C to 40°C along the coast and on islands, and 29°C to 35°C in mountainous regions. While these temperatures are elevated, they remain within typical October patterns for the UAE, where the mean temperature for the month is 29.7°C and the country's average maximum relative humidity reaches 78 per cent.
Relative humidity could reach 90 per cent in coastal and inland areas. Winds will be light to moderate, blowing at speeds of 10 to 20km/h and occasionally reaching 30km/h. Seas will remain slight in the Arabian Gulf and the Sea of Oman.
Sunday outlook
Conditions will remain fair to partly cloudy on Sunday, October 11, with clouds developing over eastern and southern areas. Some clouds may become convective by the afternoon, while humidity is expected to increase overnight and into Monday morning, bringing a possibility of fog or mist in coastal and inland areas.
Winds will be light to moderate, reaching 30km/h, with slight seas in both the Arabian Gulf and the Sea of Oman.
Rain chances begin Monday
The NCM forecasts rain chances starting Monday, October 12, with convective clouds developing over eastern areas and possibly extending to parts of the interior by afternoon. Eastern emirates like Fujairah and Al Ain, situated near the Hajar mountains, are often the first to experience seasonal weather shifts in October due to the topography favouring rain-bearing cloud formation over the mountains.
Humidity will increase overnight and into Tuesday morning across some western areas, with a possibility of fog or mist. The forecasted fog conditions mark the early stages of the UAE's fog season, which typically runs from November to May, with the densest episodes usually occurring between January and the end of February.
Winds will strengthen at times, reaching 45km/h and causing blowing dust. Seas will be slight in the Arabian Gulf and slight to moderate in the Sea of Oman.
Mid-week weather
Rain remains possible on Tuesday, October 13, with convective clouds expected to develop over eastern and western areas during the afternoon. Humid conditions will persist overnight and into Wednesday morning, with fog or mist possible in some western areas.
Winds will reach 40km/h at times, particularly with cloud development, potentially raising dust. Seas will remain slight in both the Arabian Gulf and the Sea of Oman.
The chance of rain will continue into Wednesday, October 14, with convective clouds expected over eastern and southern areas by afternoon. Humidity will increase overnight and into Thursday morning, bringing a possibility of mist in some coastal and inland areas.
Winds could reach 40km/h, causing blowing dust at times, while seas will remain slight in the Arabian Gulf and the Sea of Oman.
October weather patterns
The rainfall forecast aligns with broader meteorological patterns for October 2026, with the NCM predicting slightly above-average rainfall across the UAE this month, while temperatures are also forecast to remain higher than normal. The country is experiencing an El Niño event in 2026-2027 that meteorologists predict could be very strong, potentially stronger than the 2024 event, raising the probability of significant rainfall events from October 2026 to February 2027.
Historical weather records show that significant October rainfall is not unprecedented in the UAE. The highest amount of rainfall recorded in October stands at 139.0 mm, registered in Al Shiweb in 2016, demonstrating the potential for substantial precipitation during this transitional month.
